Stock traders are angling in on how to trade the CPI report, while longer-term investors are adjusting price targets on where to buy back into equities. Factors include what the central bank will make of the figures, and whether sentiment will turn in favor of a soft or hard landing for the economy. Under the microscope are also sub-sectors of the CPI report, including shelter costs and medical care, though analysts still hold very different pictures on where the market is headed.
8:30 Consumer Price Index
10:00 Atlanta Fed’s Business Inflation Expectations
1:00 PM Results of $19B, 30-Year Note Auction
2:00 PM Fed’s Beige Book
2:00 PM Treasury Statement
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
U.S. crude inventories increased by about 4.8 million barrels for the week ended July 1. That compared with a build of 3.8 million barrels reported by the API for the previous week. Economists were expecting a decrease of about 1.9 million barrels.
The oil-cartel kept its 2022 demand forecast unchanged, flagging significant downside risks including “ongoing geopolitical tensions, the continued pandemic, rising inflation, aggravated supply chain issues, high sovereign debt levels in many regions, and expected monetary tightening by central banks in the U.S., the U.K., Japan and the eurozone.”
The official government inventory report due Wednesday is expected to show weekly U.S. crude supplies fell by about 154,000 barrels last week
***Written Tuesday evening for Wednesday’s trading for contribution to MrTopStep’s “The Opening Print” publication.
Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Morning price strength gave way to Afternoon weakness as traders reduced holdings in advance of the “all-important” CPI release Wednesday. Prior range was 72 handles on 1.605M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Having closed below the Cycle Day 1 Low (3850), odds favor recovering this level during the RTH Session to fulfill 3-Day Cycle Statistic. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 3835, initially targets 3850 – 3855 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 3835, initially targets 3820 – 3815 zone.
PVA High Edge = 3868 PVA Low Edge = 3835 Prior POC = 3856
*****The 3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
For more detailed information for both bullish and bearish projected targets, please visit: PTG 3 Day Cycle and/or reference the Cycle Spreadsheet below:
Link to access full Cycle Spreadsheet > > Cycle Day 3 (CD3)
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) Sept 2022 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 3923; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3724; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3885; 3 Day Cycle Target: 3928; 10 Day Average True Range 111; VIX: 28
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Price is trading below CD1 Low (11853) pre-RTH as traders await the all-important CPI Report this morning. Odds favor recovering the CD1 low to fulfill 3-Day Cycle Statistic. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 11840, THEN initial upside estimate targets 11853 – 11860 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 11840, THEN initial downside estimate targets 11810 – 11800 zone.
PVA High Edge = 11932 PVA Low Edge = 11802 Prior POC = 11887
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) Sept 2022 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 12027; LOD ATR Range Projection: 11313; 3 Day Central Pivot: 11978; 3 Day Cycle Target: 12104; 10 Day Average True Range: 411; VIX: 28
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
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