The Federal Reserve is waking up this morning a little bruised around the face as a black eye inflation report underscored the now-infamous “transitory” forecast from Jay Powell and Co. The Consumer Price Index surged by an annual 9.1% in June, marking the fastest pace in four decades and risking more entrenched expectations.
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Producer Price Index
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Three-Day Cycle Objectives were fulfilled during yesterday’s GLOBEX Session but failed the RTH Session on increased selling volumes. Range was 121 handles on 2.009M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Average Decline for CD1 measures 3729 which has already been fulfilled. Volatility ranges are expected to remain historically elevated. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 3750, initially targets 3770 – 3775 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 3750, initially targets 3735 – 3725 zone.
PVA High Edge = 3832 PVA Low Edge = 3790 Prior POC = 3808
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) Sept 2022 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 3954; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3835; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3837; 3 Day Cycle Target: 3850; 10 Day Average True Range 79; VIX: 28
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Today is CD1 with Average Decline measuring 11528. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 11665, THEN initial upside estimate targets 11705 – 11750 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 11665, THEN initial downside estimate targets 11625 – 11600 zone.
PVA High Edge = 11850 PVA Low Edge = 11665 Prior POC = 11807
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) Sept 2022 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 12285; LOD ATR Range Projection: 11877; 3 Day Central Pivot: 11945; 3 Day Cycle Target: 11853; 10 Day Average True Range: 316; VIX: 26
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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