Markets
Source: SeekingAlpha.com
Economic Calendar
8:30 Durable Goods
8:30 International Trade in Goods (Advance)
8:30 Retail Inventories (Advance)
8:30 Wholesale Inventories (Advance)
10:00 Pending Home Sales
10:00 State Street Investor Confidence Index
11:00 Survey of Business Uncertainty
11:30 Results of $24B, 2-Year FRN Auction
2:00 PM FOMC Announcement
2:30 PM Chairman Press Conference
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
U.S. crude inventories decreased by about 4.0 million barrels for the week ended July 22. That compared with a build of 1.9 million barrels reported by the API for the previous week. Economists were expecting a decrease of about 1.1 million barrels.
The fall in crude inventories arrived just as the International Monetary Fund cut its outlook on global growth and warned that high inflation threatens to tip the global economy into recession.
The IMT cut its forecast on global GDP growth to 3.2% in 2022 from a forecast of 3.6% issued in April.
The official government inventory report due Wednesday is expected to show weekly U.S. crude supplies fell by about 1.0 million barrels last week.
Source: http://Investing.com
S&P 500
***Written Tuesday evening for Wednesday’s trading for contribution to MrTopStep’s “The Opening Print” publication.
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Three-Day Cycle Statistic was fulfilled before the decline began throughout the session. Prior range was 51.25 handles on 1.543M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Today begins a new cycle with the average decline measuring 3868. Also, it is FED DAY and we all know how important the impact the decision will have on markets, so be sure your seat belts are securely fastened for today’s trading. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 3940, initially targets 3970 – 3975 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 3940, initially targets 3925 – 3920 zone.
PVA High Edge = 3942 PVA Low Edge = 3917 Prior POC = 3940
*****The 3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
For more detailed information for both bullish and bearish projected targets, please visit: PTG 3 Day Cycle and/or reference the Cycle Spreadsheet below:
Link to access full Cycle Spreadsheet > > Cycle Day 1 (CD1)
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) Sept 2022 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4018; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3888; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3960; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4047; 10 Day Average True Range 72; VIX: 24
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Today begins a new cycle with the Average Decline measuring 11944. Also, today is FED Day so make sure your seat belts are securely fastened. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 12300, THEN initial upside estimate targets 12368 – 12412 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 12300, THEN initial downside estimate targets 12225 – 12185 zone.
PVA High Edge = 12216 PVA Low Edge = 12080 Prior POC = 12125
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) Sept 2022 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 12521; LOD ATR Range Projection: 12001; 3 Day Central Pivot: 12352; 3 Day Cycle Target: 12628; 10 Day Average True Range: 303; VIX: 24
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN