Markets (Top Stories)
Moody’s cut credit ratings on multiple small and mid-sized banks, and placed six larger lenders on review for downgrade to reflect U.S. banking stresses. “Many banks’ Q2 results showed growing profitability pressures that will reduce their ability to generate internal capital,” Moody’s warned, given that its base case is for a mild recession in early 2024. It also raised concerns over small and mid-size banks with greater exposure to commercial real estate – especially in construction and office lending. Among the downgraded banks were M&T Bank (MTB) and Pinnacle Financial (PNFP), while the lenders on watch for downgrade included U.S. Bancorp (USB) and Truist Financial (TFC).
Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Normal Cycle Day 2 as price formed a gaussian balanced profile pattern. Prior range was 41 handles on 1.352M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price is exhibiting overnight weakness with price trading near prior session lows. Bears are aiming to break the CD1 Low (4493.75) to fail this cycle. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4495, initially targets 4520 – 4525 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4495, initially targets 4480 – 4475 zone.
PVA High Edge = 4531 PVA Low Edge = 4514 Prior POC = 4525
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) Sept 2023 (U) Contract
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Normal Cycle Day 2 as price formed a gaussian balanced profile pattern. Prior range was 161 handles on 572k contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price is exhibiting overnight weakness with price trading near prior session lows. Bears are aiming to break the CD1 Low (15336.25) to fail this cycle. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 15335, initially targets 15400 – 15420 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 15335, initially targets 15275 – 15250 zone.
PVA High Edge = 15455 PVA Low Edge = 15397 Prior POC = 15420
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) Sept 2023 (U) Contract
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN