8:30 International Trade in Goods (Advance)
8:30 Retail Inventories (Advance)
8:30 Wholesale Inventories (Advance)
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
9:00 S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index
9:00 FHFA House Price Index
10:00 Consumer Confidence
10:00 Richmond Fed Mfg.
1:00 PM Results of $62B, 7-Year Note Auction
1:00 PM Money Supply
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Normal CD2 unfolded as price consolidated in a D-shaped profile. Range was 47 handles on 1.255M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price compression over the past few sessions has lead to a break lower during overnight trade activity. Index is currently trading below CD1 Low (4410.75), so bulls will need to recover back above during RTH to avert a “failed” cycle. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 4410, initially targets 4425 – 4430 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 4410, initially targets 4398 – 4392 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 4442 PVA Low Edge = 4430 Prior POC = 4433
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) December 2021 (Z) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4443; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4386; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4435; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4445; 10 Day Average True Range 56; VIX: 21
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Price is trading down below CD1 Low (15176.75) during overnight trade activity. Bulls will need to recover this level during RTH to avert a “failed” cycle. Prior range was 296 handles on 595k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
PVA High Edge = 15222 PVA Low Edge = 15134 Prior POC = 15192
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 14980, THEN initial upside estimate targets 15030 – 15040 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 14980, THEN initial downside estimate targets 14950 – 14925 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) December 2021 (Z) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 15148; LOD ATR Range Projection: 14968; 3 Day Central Pivot: 15255; 3 Day Cycle Target: 15386; 10 Day Average True Range: 224; VIX: 21
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN