Hopes of bulls are rising that the stock market could be seeing capitulation after Wall Street saw the third-best start to Q4 since 1930.
The major averages rallied sharply on Monday as bond yields (TBT) (TLT) (SHY) fell with the U.K. market crisis receding and weak ISM Manufacturing added some ammo to the case for a more dovish Fed. And buying support continues Tuesday, with S&P futures (SPX) (SPY), Nasdaq 100 futures (NDX:IND) (QQQ) and Dow futures (INDU) (DIA) up more than 1%.
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Prior Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Mutual Fund Monday (MFM) buying unfolded with an Open Gap higher. Mid-day consolidation was only a rest-stop to refuel for the afternoon push higher into the closing bell. Range was 140 handles, on 2.257M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Normally we would be looking for some consolidation, but currently the trend is pushing higher above prior high (3711.75) fulfilling upper Penetration Range Zone (3751 – 3755). As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 3725, initially targets 3750 – 3755 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 3725, initially targets 3715 – 3700 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 3711 PVA Low Edge = 3643 Prior POC = 3669
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) December 2022 (Z) Contract
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…This Cycle’s Rally is continuing as price surpassed prior high (11358) fulfilling upper Penetration Zone (11485 – 11540). As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 11490, THEN initial upside estimate targets 11522 – 11540 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 11490, THEN initial downside estimate targets 11435– 11415 zone.
PVA High Edge = 11236 PVA Low Edge = 10963 Prior POC = 11210
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) December 2022 (Z) Contract
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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