Trade Strategy 9.4.20

Markets

An ugly session

Tech stocks that have powered U.S. equities to record highs this summer went into sharp reverse on Thursday, with the Nasdaq Composite dropping 5%, and the Dow and S&P 500 falling 2.8% and 3.5%, respectively. 

Source: Seeking Alpha https://seekingalpha.com/

Source: https://www.investing.com/indices/indices-cfds

Economic Calendar

8:30 Non-farm payrolls
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count

Traders are closely monitoring today’s non-farm payrolls report, one of just two monthly labor market scorecards left on the calendar before the Nov. 3 presidential election. While the pace of rehiring is expected to have moderated in August, economists expect 1.4M jobs were added last month (from 1.76M in July) and see the unemployment rate ticking down to 9.8% (from 10.2%). Average hourly earnings are forecast to be unchanged in August after rising 0.2% in July. 

Source: https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

S&P 500 (ES)

Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): “Blue Sky Hypoxia” set in following consecutive all-time highs, as equities, lead by “Tech Wreck” came crashing down in a massive long liquidation. Market on Close Sell $2.6 billion capped the session. Range was 162 handles, 5x average (33) and 2.8M contracts exchanged.

Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1

This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Price is trading in a wide range overnight but holding prior session low (3426.50). Job #1 is to stabilize price ahead on Jobs Report and long holiday weekend.

Price is back to August 26th Value Zone, as such there are two scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

1.) Price sustains a bid above 3450, initially targeting 3475 – 3480 zone.

2.) Price sustains an offer below 3450, initially targeting 3435 – 3425 zone.

P -VA High = 3560       P – VA Low = 3533        P – POC = 3546

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) September 2020 (U) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 3457; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3553; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3523; 10 Day Average True Range  33; VIX: 34

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day (CD1) Price is trading below prior session low as selling pressure is weighing heavily on Tech. There are two scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

P – VA High = 12098       P – VA Low = 11996         P – POC = 12037

Bull Scenario: IF Bulls hold bid above 11782, THEN initial upside estimate targets 11868 – 11903 zone.

Bear Scenario: IF Bears hold offer below 11782, THEN initial downside estimate targets 11650 – 11590 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) September 2020 (U) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 11848; LOD ATR Range Projection: 12249; 3 Day Central Pivot: 12185; 10 Day Average True Range: 190; VIX: 34

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN


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