Tech stocks that have powered U.S. equities to record highs this summer went into sharp reverse on Thursday, with the Nasdaq Composite dropping 5%, and the Dow and S&P 500 falling 2.8% and 3.5%, respectively.
Source: Seeking Alpha https://seekingalpha.com/
8:30 Non-farm payrolls
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count
Traders are closely monitoring today’s non-farm payrolls report, one of just two monthly labor market scorecards left on the calendar before the Nov. 3 presidential election. While the pace of rehiring is expected to have moderated in August, economists expect 1.4M jobs were added last month (from 1.76M in July) and see the unemployment rate ticking down to 9.8% (from 10.2%). Average hourly earnings are forecast to be unchanged in August after rising 0.2% in July.
S&P 500 (ES)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): “Blue Sky Hypoxia” set in following consecutive all-time highs, as equities, lead by “Tech Wreck” came crashing down in a massive long liquidation. Market on Close Sell $2.6 billion capped the session. Range was 162 handles, 5x average (33) and 2.8M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Price is trading in a wide range overnight but holding prior session low (3426.50). Job #1 is to stabilize price ahead on Jobs Report and long holiday weekend.
Price is back to August 26th Value Zone, as such there are two scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 3450, initially targeting 3475 – 3480 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 3450, initially targeting 3435 – 3425 zone.
P -VA High = 3560 P – VA Low = 3533 P – POC = 3546
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) September 2020 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 3457; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3553; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3523; 10 Day Average True Range 33; VIX: 34
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)… Price is trading below prior session low as selling pressure is weighing heavily on Tech. There are two scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
P – VA High = 12098 P – VA Low = 11996 P – POC = 12037
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls hold bid above 11782, THEN initial upside estimate targets 11868 – 11903 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears hold offer below 11782, THEN initial downside estimate targets 11650 – 11590 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) September 2020 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 11848; LOD ATR Range Projection: 12249; 3 Day Central Pivot: 12185; 10 Day Average True Range: 190; VIX: 34
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
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