Heavy losses for tech The tech carnage looks set to continue this morning after Nasdaq 100 futures reversed to trade more than 2% lower amid escalating doubts over positioning (the index plunged 6% over Thursday and Friday). Contracts tied to the Dow are flat and S&P 500 futures are off 0.6% as traders return to their screens following the extended holiday weekend.
1:00 PM Results of $50B, 3-Year Note Auction
3:00 PM Consumer Credit
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Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Shortend holiday trade pushed price a bit higher but has relinquished their gains during overnight trade. Range was 58.75 handles, with 258k contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price is extending losses pre-RTH testing previous low (3382.75). Positive 3-day cycle statistic has been fulfilled. Price is still within 2-day value zone and as such, there are two scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 3382, initially targeting 3400 – 3415 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 3382, initially targeting 3350 – 3348 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Statistic covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 3400 PVA Low Edge = 3424 Prior POC = 3413
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) September 2020 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 3392; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3340; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3442; 3 Day Cycle Target: 3420; 10 Day Average True Range 45; VIX: 35
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Price is continuing its decline closing in on CD1 Low (11142) retest. Positive 3 day cycle statistic has been fulfilled and as such, there are two scenarios to consider for today’s trading:
PVA High Edge = 11404 PVA Low Edge = 11488 Prior POC = 11458
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 11300, THEN initial upside estimate targets 11350 – 11370 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 11300, THEN initial downside estimate targets 11200 – 11150 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) September 2020 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 11384; LOD ATR Range Projection: 11601; 3 Day Central Pivot: 11650; 3 Day Cycle Target: 11477; 10 Day Average True Range: 242; VIX: 35
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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